FRQ 18

As shown by the graph provided, the percent of southern seats in the House of Representatives held by Democrats has decreased over time. The support for Democrats in the House declined slower that support for Democrats in the presidency because representatives had the incumbency advantage of experience, name recognition, and campaign funding. Southerners voted for the incumbent consistently.  Also Democrats in Congress wanted to protect their southern seats so they gerrymandered through packing and cracking. Women have become more reliable Democratic voters in the past few decades, reinforcing the Democratic bloc, while Catholics and labor union members have become less reliable Democratic voters, potentially strengthening the Republican bloc.

http://apcentral.collegeboard.com/apc/public/repository/ap10_us_govt_politics_scoring_guidelines.pdf

3. Over the last several decades, the composition of the Democratic and Republican parties has changed in important ways. A major partisan shift has occurred in the South, but other demographic changes have also been identified. Changes in party composition are reflected at different rates in presidential elections than in congressional elections.

(a) Identify one specific trend evident in the figure above.

(b) Choose two of the following and use each to explain why southern voters from 1948 to 2000 were electing Democratic candidates to Congress more frequently than choosing Democratic candidates for the presidency.

• Incumbency advantage • Gerrymandering • Differences between state and national parties

(c) Several other changes in party composition have emerged in the past few decades. Select three of the following groups and for each explain how parties have changed in composition with respect to that group.

• Catholics • Labor union members • Women • Social conservatives